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The #YangGang Gets Even Stronger

Businessman Andrew Yang saw the biggest follower spike on Twitter during the Democratic Presidential debate. But can the #YangGang help Yang compete with the current front-runners?

For the second debate in a row, businessman Andrew Yang had a strong night on Twitter, gaining the most followers of anyone else on the stage. Yang gained nearly 5,000 followers in the three-hour span, bringing his total follower count to more than 945,000.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) came in second with 4,100 new followers, bringing her total to 3.4 million, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) – who has the most Twitter followers of any Democratic candidate at 9.8 million – nabbed another 2,944 new followers during the debate.

At the bottom of the pack? Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and billionaire Tom Steyer, who gained 765 and 844 new followers, respectively.

Will these spikes in Twitter followers be indicative of post-debate momentum? Only time will tell.

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Were Trump’s Ears Burning Last Night?

Once again, President Donald Trump was the most-mentioned person on last night’s debate stage. Mentions of former President Barack Obama dropped significantly from last month, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren appeared to be in the hot seat … or podium.

Much like last month’s debate, President Donald Trump was the most-mentioned individual during Tuesday night’s Democratic debate in Westerville, Ohio.

President Donald Trump was mentioned a total of 67 times by all 12 candidates on the stage. The president was mentioned more than everyone else in the top 10 combined.

After Trump, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), was the second-most discussed person, with a total of 19 mentions by nine different candidates, likely the result of her being seen as a new front-runner.

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Who Leads the Polls … and Twitter

As the country digests last night’s Democratic debate, we took a look at how the candidates are performing in the polls … and on Twitter. Spoiler alert: They tell two very different stories.

As the media and pundits discuss who “won” last night’s Democratic debate, we took a look at two voter support metrics: polling and retweets.

From Sept. 1 to Oct. 13, The ScottRasmussen.com/HarrisX poll tracked who registered voters are most likely to vote for in a Democratic primary. We also looked at the candidates’ average number of retweets over the same time period. Spoiler alert: They tell two very different stories.

Former Vice President Biden tops the poll, at 30.08%, but comes in fourth in average retweets (1,935). On the other hand, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) topped the Twitter engagement list with an average of 2,819 retweets per tweet but came in 6th in polling, with just 2.96% of registered voters saying they are most likely to vote for him in the Democratic primary.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the only candidate to land in the top three in polling and average retweets, nabbing second in both.

Is social media engagement an early indicator of election-day votes? Or, is traditional polling still our best bet for predicting election results? We’ll be watching.

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Two Tales of the Democratic Frontrunners

Former Vice President Joe Biden has held on to a comfortable lead in the polls for the last six weeks, but Twitter tells a different story. Could it indicate a changing tide?

As we inch closer to the 2020 Democratic primaries, all eyes have understandably been on the latest polling numbers. But is that the only indicator of how the candidates are performing?

The ScottRasmussen.com/HarrisX poll tracks who registered voters are most likely to vote for in a Democratic primary. From Aug. 1 to Sept. 12, former Vice President Biden nabbed 30.52% of the vote, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 16.93% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 12.68%.

But Twitter tells a different story. During that same time period, front-runner Biden came in sixth in terms of average retweets, a common metric for social media engagement, with an average of 1,147 retweets per tweet. Meanwhile, Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) topped the Twitter list with an average of 3,433 retweets per tweet but came in middle of the pack (6th) in polling, garnering just 3.23% of the vote.

Taking a look at polling and retweets by rank over time offers another interesting perspective. The top four polling candidates – Biden, Sanders, Warren and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) – have stayed in their respective spots for the last six weeks. However, Twitter appears to catch more of the ebbs and flows of the presidential hopefuls’ popularity.

We’ll be watching to see if Twitter engagement ends up being an early indicator in changes in voter preferences.

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What Does Debate Speaking Time Mean for Twitter Follower Growth?

Turns out camera time during the Democratic debate may not translate to popularity growth – at least on Twitter. Former Vice President Joe Biden spoke the most during last Thursday’s debate, but ranked seventh in Twitter follower growth.

We’ve become accustomed to seeing the presidential candidates jockeying for airtime, and the third Democratic debate was no exception. But it turns out camera time may not matter so much when it comes to gaining voter popularity – at least on Twitter.

Front runner former Vice President Joe Biden spoke the most during last Thursday’s debate, with 3,392 words. That’s 609 words more than the next most-talkative candidate, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.). However, Biden came in a distant 7th in terms of Twitter follower growth, nabbing just 8,557 new followers since the debate on Sept. 12.

On the other end of the spectrum, businessman Andrew Yang spoke the least during the debate – 50% less than Biden – but managed to nab nearly 40,000 new Twitter followers. Yang’s promise to give 10 families $1,000 a month for a year may have had something to do with his surging popularity online.

Similarly to Yang, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) spoke the second least but had the third highest growth in Twitter followers.

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Say My Name, Say My Name

Who merited the most mentions during last week’s presidential debate? The results—which highlight the differences in candidates’ strategic approaches—may surprise you.

There were 10 candidates participating in the Democratic primary debate in Houston, Texas, last Thursday, but the two individuals mentioned most weren’t on stage.

Candidates invoked President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama more than any other individuals, including the entire 2020 Democratic presidential field.

These mentions tell an interesting story about debate strategy. Eight of the 10 candidates mentioned President Trump, with the exception of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). In fact, Sanders didn’t mention Obama either. Instead, he focused on the other candidates on stage, in a marked contrast to his competition.

On the other end of the spectrum, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) mentioned Trump more than any other candidate—a total of 10 times. Occasionally, she even stared directly into the camera to speak to the President.

We’ll be watching to see which of these strategies work for the candidates going forward.

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What Twitter Tells Us Going Into This Week’s Debates

Ahead of this week’s Democratic debates, we took a look at how the candidates stack up in terms of their podium placement and Twitter engagement across the two nights of debates.

The second round of Democratic debates, hosted by CNN, are taking place this week. The 20 candidates who qualified were split into two groups – Tuesday and Wednesday nights – and podium placement was determined by public polling numbers.

We took a look at the debate groups and podium placement based on Twitter engagement, i.e. average favorites and retweets, to see how the candidates stack up.

Of the night one candidates, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) had the highest Twitter engagement, matching their center stage placement.

However, on night two, former Vice President Joe Biden nabbed one of the two center spots on stage, but he comes in fourth in Twitter engagement, after Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), businessman Andrew Yang and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii).

Another outlier on night two? Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) will stand at the end of the stage. But his Twitter engagement last week was higher than Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Washington Governor Jay Inslee (D).

Will Twitter engagement be indicative of debate performance? We’ll be watching.

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Trump Looms Large on the 2020 Trail

Presidential candidates focused heavily on Trump last week, with other top campaign topics like “climate,” “health” and “immigration” trailing behind.

As the race to November 2020 heats up, democratic presidential hopefuls’ tweets provide insight into their top campaign issues.

But are policy issues taking a backseat to the president himself? Last week, the most mentioned topic, used 186 times, was “Trump.”

“Climate” came in second with 123 mentions, followed by “health” with 89 mentions. And despite the recent uproar against the treatment of migrants at the border, “immigration” came in fourth, with 58 mentions—fewer than half of “Trump” mentions.

Will the 2020 election be a referendum on President Trump? Or, will the democratic candidates’ tweets about policy issues increase? We’ll be watching.

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The Debate Winners … on Twitter

What can Twitter tell us about the winners and losers of the first Democratic presidential debates? As of Sunday, Sen. Kamala Harris gained the most followers following the debate (+112,536), while former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro saw the biggest follower percent growth at +42%.

As the country continues to debrief on last week’s first Democratic presidential debates, we looked at Twitter to assess the social media winners. Twenty candidates in total participated in the debates, 10 on Wednesday and 10 on Thursday.

Of all the candidates, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) had gained the most followers – +112,536 – post-debate.

Businessman Andrew Yang came in a close second, with 111,612 new followers, a 29% increase in his follower base. However, Yang’s big jump on Twitter may be less about his debate performance, and more about his contest to provide $1,000 per month for one year to someone who follows and retweets him on Twitter.

Former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro gained 92,557 new followers, which was notably the highest percent growth – at 42% – among all candidates.

And South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) rounded out the top five candidates by follower growth.

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Twitter Engagement Shows a Lopsided Debate Lineup

The Democratic National Committee held a two-part, random drawing to help ensure the 2020 presidential candidates were split fairly among next week’s two debates. However, an analysis of the 20 candidates’ Twitter engagement over the last week forecasts a lopsided lineup.

What does Twitter engagement tell us going into next week’s Democratic presidential debates?

The Thursday, June 27 (“purple group”) debate includes most of the Twitter heavyweights.

The Democratic National Committee held a two-part random drawing to determine how candidates would be split among the two debate nights. According to Vox, “This method was designed to ensure there was no ‘kids’ table’ debates with only the poorly polling candidates.”

However, six of the seven candidates with the highest Twitter engagement over the last week were randomly assigned to the second debate. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who averaged 1,533 retweets and 7,448 favorites per tweet last week, is the only top tweeter assigned to the first night.

Among the second debate night, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg tops the list with an average of 1,285 retweets and 11,484 favorites per tweet, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Perhaps even more telling is looking at the average Twitter engagement collectively by group. The “orange group” received an average of 507 retweets and 2,247 favorites last week, while the “purple group” received an average of 842 retweets and 3,929 favorites.

We’ll be keeping an eye on how the lopsided lineups impact the debates … and the candidates.